“Man bites dog” always makes for a better headline than “Dog
bites man”. That is the simple truth on which tabloid headlines are founded on.
When it comes to the monsoon, “Drought looms large” makes
for a more compelling headline than “Normal monsoon expected” – and media, even
the non-tabloid media, use the negative headline rather than the positive one
in the unending effort to gain readership, viewership and click-throughs.
Can anyone really predict the nature of the monsoon rains?
Can anyone really predict the nature of the monsoon?
The difference between the “Man bites dog” situation and the
“Drought looms large” situation is that the first headline is written after the
fact and is indisputable, while the second is predictive in nature and can be
proven wrong in the future.
That’s why media needs to shut up on their prognosis of the
monsoon – because, simply put, no one, even the Indian Meteorological
Department, knows how the rains will finally play out by the end of the season.
A few days ago, the country had measured rainfall which was
43 percent of the long term average. Two days of rain reduced the gap to 40 per
cent. The rains which have occurred in most parts of the country except north
western India in the past couple of days would have reduced the gap further.
Having said that, if the rains stay away for a week or two,
we will have a crisis on our hands.
Till we know that there IS a crisis, the negative headlines
only serve to cause worry. It causes the average citizen into worrying about an
issue as simple as drinking water and water cuts at home; it causes the
decision makers in industry to worry about shrinking sales and shrinking GDP;
it causes housewives into worrying about higher vegetable and fruit prices in
the anticipation of a demand-supply mismatch.
And if the headline on the following day is a positive one,
as we see today, all that fear and worry has been unfounded.
The monsoon is not a T20 match and there is no need for a
ball-by-ball commentary and no need for reporting run rates and revised run
rates. The monsoon plays out over a 4-month period and the current day by day
and millimeter by millimeter reportage and inexpert analysis does nothing but
dampen the spirit of citizens.
Media reports sales of companies on a quarterly basis;
schools and colleges evaluate students of a term or semester basis – imagine if
these were reported and “analysed” on a day-to-day basis.
The monsoon is far more complex – and far more impactful
than these examples, and yet media revels in the daily, unscientific,
irresponsible and damaging update.
Can we all shut up, please?
